10TH SENATE PRESIDENCY: SEN. AKPABIO, TAKE HEED !
~Kawuuk Zephaniah Ikpaikor
"wherefore he that thinketh himself to stand, let him take heed lest he fall "
1 Corinth 10: 12 NIV
The above scripture is usually quoted whilst advising a person not to reach a final conclusion when undertaking an task, activity or life endeavor. It could also mean to take extra caution in course of an event. This clearly fits into the present circumstances of Sen. Godswill Obot Akpabio viz-a-vis his race to the Senate Presidency of the incoming 10th Senate.
It is no longer news that the national leadership of the APC, yesterday 8th May, 2023 finally release an official statement on the zoning of the top two positions in both chambers of the National Assembly. This comes after months of speculations, intense lobbying and manuovers and sustained consultations, after the 2023 general elections.
According to the statement signed by the APC's National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka , the Senate President is zoned to the South- South with Sen. Godswill Akpabio as the party's consensus candidate while the North-West geopolitical zone is to produce the Deputy Senate President.
Notwithstanding the official statement by the APC, the battle for the nation's number three job is far from being over. Anyone thinking otherwise is living in wishful thinking and is yet to be aquatinted with the dynamics of the Nigerian politics.
Therefore, Sen. Godswill Akpabio should 'TAKE HEED, lest he fall'. He should not celebrate yet, because the race has just begun. The battle for the Senate President is not yet won and so, should thread with caution and sustain further negotiations, lobbying and manuovers.
This advice to take heed comes on the heels of preventing a re-occurance of the 8th Senate leadership experience.
The APC, which had then, just grabbed power at the center after the 2015 general election, just like she did yesterday, had zoned both the Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives to the North-East and South-West respectively, with Sen. Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan and Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila as consensus candidate.
However, some APC Senators-Elect, led by Sen. Bukola Saraki were not pleased with the party's position on the NASS leadership. This led Sen. Saraki and his loyal Senators to boycott the party decision and rather plotted what I would termed ' Senate coup' They rather opted to form an alliance with opposition Senators-Elect, led by PDP Senators, which formed the largest number in the minority caucus of the then incoming 8th Senate.
The APC had just maintained a very slim majority lead in the Senate and cannot comfortably produced the leadership of the Senate without the support of opposition Senators-Elect.
Just like Gov. Nyesom Wike of Rivers State will quipped 'If you do for me, I do for you' ;
Sen. Bukola Saraki, in wanting to secure the support of the PDP Senators, which no doubt were the critical factor to his emergence , conceded the Deputy Senate President position to the PDP.
The 'Senate coup' was successfully executed and Sen. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, APC -Kwara Central, emerged the Senate President while Sen. Ike Ekweremadu, PDP- Enugu North emerged as Deputy Senate President.
This was 'the first of it's kind' bi-partisan leadership in the Senate since the beginning of the Fourth Republic in 1999.
The 'Saraki script' MAY likely be repeated again, if events are not properly managed by Sen. Akpabio, who is the major beneficiary of the consensus arrangement and by extension the APC as a larger entity. Again, the APC just like in 2015 is just having a very slim majority lead in the incoming 10th Senate.
With the conclusion of all outstanding re-runs and supplementary elections across the country, the 109- member Senate is fully composed. A cursory look at the INEC's website shows that the ruling APC has 59 Senators-Elect, PDP occupied 36 seats, LP - 8 seats; SDP - 2 seats; NNPP-2 seats; YPP and APGA both having 1-seat each. That's to say APC alone have not achieve the 2/3 majority of the Senate, which is the statutory percentage for majority votes. The 2/3 of 109-member Senate is 72 or 73 Senators.
From the above analysis, the APC cannot afford to lose its votes, otherwise they may not be able to secure the needed number to implement their zoning arrangements. Any protest vote from aggrieved APC Senators-Elect in collision with the multiple minority parties in the Senate, may change the pendulum of leadership in the 10th Senate.
As it was in 2015, not all APC Senators-Elect are happy with the zoning and/or consensus arrangement, especially Senators from the South-East zone, who had argued that the Senate President position be zoned to the region, as compensation for the region's support to the APC and in the spirit of equity, peace- building and justice.
This is the more reason Sen. Godswill Obot Akpabio should not go to sleep with the hope that the battle is over, No ! Until a Senate President is dully elected come June 10, 2023; the battle is far from being over, hence Sen. Akpabio should thread with caution.
He should continue to consult, lobby and negotiate with critical stakeholders especially the coalition of minority parties, in whose hands, his fate now lies. Being favored by zoning and getting the party's endorsement is just one phase in the race to the number three seat and definitely a very good start for him.
Politics, like they usually say, is a game of interest. Sen. Akpabio should discuss individual, constituency or regional interest with Senators-Elect. His current efforts of in consulting respected traditional and religious leaders should be sustained. His recent visit to the Ooni of Ife, is right step in the right direction.
Read more: https://oboloheritage.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-chances-of-sen-godswill-akpabio-by.html
I sincerely wish and pray Sen. Godswill Obot Akpabio will cling the nation's number three job but power, just like his godfather and President Elect , Bola Ahmed Tinibu will say ' power is not given but you must grab it' .
Dear, Sen. Akpabio, do all within your power to 'grab this one' . I wish you good luck !
IKPAIKOR, is a public affairs analyst and writes from Port Harcourt
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